For help, bugs, or feedback on Sardine Weather, email support@sardine-weather.com. We read every message. Typical reply within two business days.
Common Questions
What is Sardine Weather?
A daily temperature prediction model for the 19 U.S. cities listed on Kalshi's weather markets. We combine NOAA forecasts with real-time station observations and per-city learned bias to estimate each market's fair probability. Users see cost (Kalshi ask), fair (our estimate), and edge (fair minus cost) for every bucket.
Does Sardine place trades for me?
No. Sardine is a data analytics tool. All trading decisions and executions happen on Kalshi (or another venue you choose), and are entirely your responsibility. Tapping a row in the app opens that market in your browser or Kalshi app.
How often does the data refresh?
The prediction pipeline runs every ten minutes during the day. The app auto-refreshes in the foreground; pull down on any screen to force an immediate refresh.
Why is San Antonio or New York missing some buckets?
Kalshi does not list every temperature market for every city every day. San Antonio has no daily high market at this time; New York has no daily low. Those cities show an empty ladder with a short note explaining why.
How do I know the model is any good?
The Accuracy tab in the app shows the rolling 30-day mean absolute error per city and the head-to-head comparison against NOAA's forecast. Every settled day is logged and averaged — nothing is cherry-picked.
Is this app for making money?
That is up to you. Sardine publishes probability estimates. Prediction markets involve real risk of loss, and weather markets can settle against you even when the model is statistically correct on average. Do not stake more than you can afford to lose.
Request a Feature
Want a new city, a different view, API access, alerts on a specific edge threshold? Send a short note to support@sardine-weather.com with the word “FEATURE” in the subject.
Report a Bug
Same email, subject “BUG”. Include your iPhone model, iOS version, and a short description of what happened and what you expected.