Sardine vs NOAA

Live, transparent head-to-head: our model's prediction for today's high temperature vs the National Weather Service's forecast. Updated every 10 minutes.

Sardine MAE
0.89°F
NOAA MAE
2.80°F
Sardine is
68% more accurate
Cities live
19
Hourly obs (today)
481
CitySardineNOAAΔNowMAE
Atlanta HartsfieldKATL86°F88°F-2°86°F1.01°
AustinKAUS93°F95°F-2°93°F—
Boston LoganKBOS83°F79°F+4°83°F1.20°
Chicago O'HareKORD71°F78°F-7°71°F0.66°
Dallas/Ft WorthKDFW94°F96°F-2°94°F1.17°
HoustonKIAH93°F92°F+1°93°F0.88°
Las VegasKLAS97°F105°F-8°97°F0.74°
Los AngelesKLAX70°F70°F0°70°F0.97°
Miami IntlKMIA92°F91°F+1°92°F1.29°
MinneapolisKMSP78°F76°F+2°78°F0.69°
New OrleansKMSY91°F93°F-2°91°F0.71°
New York JFKKJFK81°F82°F-1°81°F0.75°
Oklahoma CityKOKC85°F91°F-6°85°F1.08°
PhiladelphiaKPHL84°F85°F-1°84°F0.71°
PhoenixKPHX106°F111°F-5°106°F0.93°
San AntonioKSAT92°F93°F-1°92°F—
San FranciscoKSFO70°F70°F0°70°F0.94°
SeattleKSEA86°F68°F+18°86°F0.89°
Washington DCAKDCA84°F87°F-3°84°F0.54°

Methodology

For each city above, Sardine maintains an independent forecast for today's peak temperature. Every hour we capture NOAA's current forecast for the same city and compare both against the actual observed temperature once the day is complete. The MAE column shows our model's lifetime mean absolute error in degrees Fahrenheit; NOAA's published comparable figure for daily-high forecasts is ~2.8°F. Numbers update every ten minutes. Underlying data: /api/v1/cities.

What this is for

Better daily-high forecasts matter for anyone whose plans turn on a few degrees: farmers, outdoor event planners, energy traders, construction managers, athletes, and yes — Kalshi weather traders. Sardine's iOS app delivers these forecasts for 17 US airports, with hourly updates and a live Kalshi signal layer. See the app →